Global oilseed prices softened in late 2025 and early 2026 as improving South American supply prospects and weak demand weighed on markets. Strong Brazilian crop conditions, falling soybean export prices, and softening vegetable oil prices have reduced palm oil’s limited support, reinforcing a broadly bearish outlook.
Global oilseed markets remained under sustained pressure in late 2025 and early 2026, as expectations of abundant supply from South America coincided with growing concerns over weak global demand. Favorable weather in Brazil and softness in soy and vegetable oil markets led to lower prices at major exporter sources.
In its grain market report released on January 15, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported a sharp decline in average global soybean export quotes since the end of November, with the sharpest decline recorded in the Southern Hemisphere core. The slowdown reflected both improved crop prospects and a fragile demand environment.
According to IGC, Chicago soybean spot futures declined significantly as bearish fundamentals continued to dominate market sentiment. While recent export sales to China provided temporary support, concerns about medium-term demand remain. As of early 2026, cumulative soybean export commitments were running about 30% below last year’s levels, largely due to lower buying by Chinese processors.
Crop conditions in Brazil further impacted prices. Mostly favorable weather supported early harvesting beginning in December, boosting expectations of a large harvest. Weakness in soya cake and soya oil markets added to the overall negative trend, although some sectors saw marginal improvement in base levels.
Despite the strong base, US Gulf soybean export prices declined nearly 6% during the period to $425 per tonne free on board (FOB). Brazilian spot prices fell even more sharply – about 10% – to around $405 a tonne FOB since mid-November, as markets priced in a record crop and a low premium for new crop supplies. Argentine up-river export prices also fell close to 10%, reaching near $400 per tonne FOB.
The trend was similar in other oilseeds also. In Canada, ICE canola futures fell 3%, reflecting expectations of ample supply and soybean weakness. Physical canola prices in Vancouver declined $10 to $479 a tonne FOB, while Australian export offers from Kwinana declined $20 to $520 a tonne FOB.
Supporting this broader picture, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a 0.2% month-on-month decline in global vegetable oil prices in December, pushing the index to a six-month low. The decline in soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil prices was offset by strong palm oil prices, although overall for 2025, vegetable oil prices remained 17% higher year-on-year due to earlier supply shortages.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture raised its global soybean production forecast for 2025-26 to a record 425.7 million tonnes, driven mainly by higher production expectations in Brazil and the United States. Brazil’s crop alone was revised up to 178 million tonnes due to expanded acreage, improved yields and favorable rainfall in key producing regions.
