Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26: Growth in Output, But Sector Faces Uneven Trends
The latest Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26 paints a mixed landscape for Indian agriculture. While the government highlights resilience and overall growth, the underlying data whispers a more layered story. Total kharif food grain output is projected at 173.33 million tonnes, marking a gain of 3.87 million tonnes over last year’s comparable estimate—yet several crucial crops have slipped below last season’s final figures.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan described the season’s numbers as signs of “positive momentum.” But the figures reflect an uneven performance shaped by unpredictable rainfall — a familiar visitor that blesses some fields and bruises others.
Rice and Maize Drive Growth in Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26
The season’s overall boost leans heavily on two crops:
- Kharif rice: Estimated at 124.50 million tonnes, up 1.73 million tonnes from last year.
- Maize: Expected to climb to 28.30 million tonnes, adding 3.50 million tonnes compared to 2024-25.
These two crops almost single-handedly pull the kharif numbers upward.
Key Crops Fall Below Last Year’s Production Levels
A deeper look at the Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26 reveals concerning declines:
- Crop A
- Last year: 15.27 MT
- This year: 14.27 MT
- Decline: -1.00 MT
- Crop B
- Last year: 3.62 MT
- This year: 3.60 MT
- Decline: -0.02 MT
- Crop C
- Last year: 1.34 MT
- This year: 1.21 MT
- Decline: -0.13 MT
Among pulses, moong stands out as the lone achiever, expected to jump from 1.34 MT to 1.72 MT.
Oilseed Performance Mixed in Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26
The oilseed sector presents a split story:
- Groundnut output improves to 11.09 MT, adding 0.68 MT.
- Soybean, the dominant kharif oilseed, faces a drop, neutralizing much of the sector’s benefit and reinforcing India’s reliance on edible oil imports.
Sugarcane Rises, But Old Challenges Resurface
Sugarcane production is estimated at 475.61 MT, up 21 MT from the previous year. While this supports sugar supply, it renews long-standing concerns:
- Pressure on sugar mills
- Water stress in cane-growing regions
A familiar cycle returns, despite higher output.
Weather Volatility Shapes Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26
The ministry notes that excessive rainfall damaged crops in certain regions, although many areas enjoyed a favorable monsoon. Analysts warn that erratic rainfall has become more frequent, hitting rain-fed crops hardest — notably soybean, urad, and cotton.
Experts also caution that initial estimates often shift sharply after post-harvest assessments, especially in climatically unstable years.
Inflation Concerns Continue Despite Higher Kharif Output
Increased production of rice and maize may provide relief from cereal inflation.
However:
- Shortages in tur and urad could elevate pulse prices.
- Reduced soybean output means edible oil inflation may not ease unless global markets stay soft.
Thus, the overall inflation outlook remains fragile.
Rural Income Outlook Weak Despite Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26
Higher rice and maize yields may benefit some farmers, but many producers — especially in pulses, cotton, and soybean — are staring at shrinking margins. With input costs still elevated, rural consumption is unlikely to rebound strongly.
A Cautiously Positive Beginning to the Kharif Year
The government frames the Kharif Production Estimate 2025-26 as a signal of strength. Yet, when viewed closely, the picture is nuanced. Total output has risen, but the decline in multiple key crops reveals areas of stress.
As climate variability sharpens and price pressures linger, early-season optimism remains restrained. More accurate clarity will emerge after field-level crop assessments and updated estimates in the coming months.
