According to ECMWF’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, January 2026 ranked as the fifth-warmest January on record, with global temperatures 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Sea surface temperatures were near record highs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. | Photo Credit: C3S/ECMWF
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), January 2026 was the fifth warmest year on record and was marked by extreme temperature extremes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The January temperature was also recorded 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures.
In the last weeks of January, the Northern Hemisphere experienced intense cold waves as the polar jet stream spread icy air across Europe and North America. This led to the coldest January recorded in Europe since 2010, with an average temperature of -2.34 °C.
Despite these cold events, monthly temperatures were still above average across the globe, including large areas of the Arctic and western North America.
According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), record-breaking heat in the Southern Hemisphere led to extreme conditions, including wildfires, which increased in the second half of January. This included massive fires that killed many people in Australia, Chile and Patagonia. Heavy rainfall across southern Africa in the last week of the month caused severe flooding, particularly in Mozambique, with devastating impact on lives and livelihoods.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, commented: “January 2026 provided a stark reminder that the climate system can sometimes deliver extreme cold weather in one region and extreme heat in another. While human activities continue to drive long-term warming, these recent events highlight that resilience and adaptation to increasing extremes are key to preparing societies for increased climate risks in the future.”
global temperature
According to the ERA5 dataset, January 2026 was the fifth warmest January globally, with an average surface air temperature of 12.95°C, which is 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 average temperature for the month.
January 2026 was 0.28 °C colder than the warmest January on record in 2025.
This was 1.47 °C higher than the estimated 1850–1900 average used to define pre-industrial levels.
sea surface temperature
The mean sea surface temperature (SST) over 60°S–60°N in January 2026 was 20.68°C, the fourth highest value on record for the month, 0.29°C lower than the January 2024 record.
A large area of the subtropical and northeastern North Atlantic, including the Norwegian Sea, had the warmest SSTs on record for the time of year.
Much of the North Pacific continued to record higher than average SSTs. In contrast, SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were near or slightly below the 1991–2020 average, indicating weak La Niña conditions.
According to the report, the lowest-than-average SSTs were recorded in the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, Central South Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea.
Europe and other regions
During the second half of January 2026, severe cold conditions spread across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and Siberia, driven primarily by a wavelier than normal polar jet stream that allowed cold Arctic air to spread into the mid-latitudes.
The average temperature over European land in January 2026 was -2.34°C, about 1.63°C lower than the average January temperature from 1991–2020, making it Europe’s coldest January since 2010.
Warmer than average temperatures were recorded across the Arctic, particularly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Baffin Bay, Greenland and the Russian Far East. Above average temperatures were also recorded across southern South America, North Africa, Central Asia and large areas of Australia and Antarctica.
Published on February 10, 2026
