Unlike electricity or transportation, agriculture is both a victim of climate change and a contributor to emissions, while remaining the primary source of income for about half the population. The scenarios underline that India’s growth-climate balance will be determined less by headline emissions targets and more by how the agricultural economy adapts, finances itself and absorbs transition shocks.
NITI Aayog’s scenario study on Developed India and Net Zero puts energy, industry and finance at the forefront of India’s long-term transformation. Yet implicit within the modeling is a quieter but far more consequential reality: India’s ability to achieve net zero by 2070 without derailing growth depends on agriculture and rural livelihoods.
Unlike electricity or transportation, agriculture is both a victim of climate change and a contributor to emissions, while remaining the primary source of income for about half the population. The scenarios underline that India’s growth-climate balance will be determined less by headline emissions targets and more by how the agricultural economy adapts, finances itself and absorbs transition shocks.
Agriculture as a climate risk multiplier
The macroeconomic volume of studies highlights climate change as a material risk to agricultural production, food inflation, rural incomes and fiscal sustainability. Rising temperatures, erratic monsoons and extreme weather events directly threaten crop yields, especially in the rain-fed regions that dominate India’s agricultural landscape.
The implication is clear: without large-scale investment in climate-resilient agriculture, India’s growth path itself becomes vulnerable. Agricultural crises contribute to inflation, migration and social instability – which are likely to be exacerbated as climate impacts intensify over the next two decades.
Emissions without exhaust options
Agriculture presents a unique challenge in India’s net zero path. Unlike electricity or industry, there is no clear technological “switch” that eliminates emissions. Methane from livestock, nitrous oxide from fertilizers, and emissions from rice farming remain structurally embedded in food production.
NITI Aayog’s scenarios clearly acknowledge this constraint. Rather than absolute emissions reductions, the pathway relies on efficiency gains, better practices, demand-side shifts, and carbon sequestration through soil and biomass. It positions agriculture not as a sector to be isolated, but as a sector that should be managed within a broader land-use and food-system strategy.
financing rural transition
While most of the $22-23 trillion investment need identified in the Financing Needs report is concentrated in power, transport and industry, agriculture faces a different financing problem: long-term underinvestment rather than lack of capital alone.
Climate-resilient seeds, micro-irrigation, precision farming, diversified harvest and post-harvest infrastructure require continuous capital flows – but returns are uncertain, fragmented and highly affected by weather risk. Traditional finance is not suitable for these conditions, and private capital remains cautious.
The implication is that public finance, blended finance and institutional innovation will determine whether agriculture will become a climate liability or a resilient asset. Without this change, rural India risks bearing the costs of the transition without access to its benefits.
Behavior change in food systems and mission life
NITI Aayog places significant emphasis on mission life and behavior change and agriculture is at the center of this strategy. Changes in cropping patterns, fertilizer use, water consumption and dietary preferences are necessary to reduce emissions intensity without jeopardizing food security.
This signals a subtle but important shift in policy thinking: India’s net zero pathway considers changes not just in how energy is produced, but also in how food is grown and consumed. For farmers, this means adopting new farming practices; For consumers, this means gradual changes in diet and reduction in food waste.
However, the political economy of such change is complex. Without reliable income support, risk-sharing mechanisms and market access, behavior change at the farm level will remain aspirational.
Coal grows, agriculture absorbs shock
One of the most controversial findings – that India’s coal consumption will continue to grow until 2047 – has an indirect but powerful impact on agriculture. Continued reliance on fossil fuels increases the potential for rapid climate impacts, placing additional pressure on agricultural systems already operating near ecological limits.
In effect, agriculture becomes the shock absorber of delayed emissions reductions, bearing the consequences of warming while other sectors prioritize growth and energy security. This reinforces the need for anticipatory investment in rural resilience rather than reactive relief.
85% remains to be built—including rural India
The study’s finding that 85% of India’s 2047 infrastructure is still to be built applies to rural India as much as cities. Cold chains, storage, processing facilities, rural logistics and water systems will shape future agricultural emissions and incomes.
If these assets are climate-aligned, agriculture can transition toward higher value, less waste and greater resilience. If not, India risks locking millions of farmers into low-productivity, high-risk systems as climate pressures increase.
Agriculture as litmus test for developed India
NITI Aayog’s Net Zero scenario ultimately suggests that India’s climate ambitions are technically feasible and economically defensible. But agriculture remains a sector where feasibility meets social reality.
If India can stabilize farm incomes, protect food security, and reduce emissions intensity without marginalizing smallholders, then developed India becomes a credible, inclusive vision. If not, climate policy risks deepening rural distress and undermining the development it aims to protect.
In that sense, agriculture is not a side chapter in India’s net zero story – it is the litmus test. How India manages its farms over the next two decades will decide whether its development model becomes a template for the Global South, or a cautionary tale of transition without inclusion.
