Despite the low pressure area weakening on Friday, rain and thundershowers occurred over southern and adjoining central parts of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu on Friday. Photo credit: www.meteologix.com/in
The existing low pressure area over the equatorial Indian Ocean and southwest Bay of Bengal weakened on Friday, allowing the remaining circulation to move northwestwards towards Sri Lanka by Saturday. But in the next two days, a fresh ‘minimum’ situation may arise in the other end of the Gulf (south-east) and the adjacent Indian Ocean.
An incipient cyclonic circulation was located over the equatorial Indian Ocean and adjacent Southeast Gulf on Friday, an unprecedented replication of activity driven primarily by an eastward-moving Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave passing over the Indian Ocean with a distinctive payload of moisture; clouds, rain; And strong winds.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the ‘low’ emerging over the south-east Gulf and adjacent equatorial Indian Ocean may shift to the south-central Gulf. It also paid off expectations of the preceding ‘low’ on the Sri Lanka-Tamil Nadu side to accelerate one level to become ‘well-marked’ on the origin zone.
The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates that the ‘low’ may not be sustained for long, as an adverse circulation pattern (seasonal anticyclone) is likely to develop over the gulf which will hinder its survival. The ‘low’ may gradually diminish under the weight of a sink-heavy anticyclonic pattern.
friendly trough in south
On Friday, a weather-friendly trough was hovering over the equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining south-west Gulf (near Sri Lanka) up to Lakshadweep in south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala. Heavy rain likely over southern Tamil Nadu; and Kerala and Mahe on Saturday and Sunday.
Isolated to sporadic rain; storm; There is a possibility of lightning and strong winds in Tamil Nadu; Kerala; And Mahe. There is a possibility of thunderstorm and lightning in Kerala and Mahe on Monday; South Interior Karnataka for four days from Saturday; And in coastal and northern interior Karnataka for three days from Sunday.
rain, storm in the north
To the north, a prevalent Western Disturbance weakened into a trough and extended from Central Uttar Pradesh through East Rajasthan to North Gujarat. The upper air cyclonic circulation over South Haryana and adjoining Punjab continued on Friday also. IMD has predicted thunderstorm and lightning for Uttarakhand on Sunday; Vidarbha on Monday; And Chhattisgarh and Odisha on Monday and Tuesday.
Rain, snowfall for the mountains
Scattered rain/snow likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Sunday and Monday; And Uttarakhand for three days from Sunday. Rain or thundershowers were recorded at a few places in Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the 24 hours ending Friday morning; Uttarakhand; And at isolated places in West Madhya Pradesh, and East Madhya Pradesh and eastern parts of Gujarat.
Published on February 20, 2026
