The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the industry body of private sector sugar producers, has cut the country’s gross sugar production estimate to 32.4 million tonnes, lower than its previous estimate of 34.35 million tonnes and the government’s estimate of 33 million tonnes.
With a modest surplus compared to demand and low carryover stocks from last year, India may have to tread carefully to avoid any price hike during the festive season in October.
Releasing its third advance estimate of sugar production for the 2025-26 sugar season (October-September), ISMA said a comprehensive review was conducted by its executive committee on Wednesday.
In the review, the production outlook has been revised to gross production at 32.4 million tonnes, diversion for ethanol at 3.1 million tonnes and net sugar production at 29.29 million tonnes.
It said net sugar production is 12 per cent higher than last year’s 26.12 million tonnes, while sugar diversion is estimated based on state-wise ethanol supply allocation and expected cane crushing during the remaining season.
5.3 MT carry-forward
business Line Uttar Pradesh, the largest producer of sugarcane, was the first to report about a possible decline in sugar production after farmers reported a decline in crop yields.
Since the government has allowed export of 2 million tonnes of sugar, ISMA has now estimated that 0.7 million tonnes can be exported this season, leaving the country with stocks of 5.3 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season.
However, industry experts said if Indian sugar demand surges suddenly, which is likely, the government may have to step in to limit the current production numbers, adding that if the sugar goes for ethanol and exports as per permission, there could be a net availability of 31.8 million tonnes.
An industry expert said even if sugar consumption is assumed at a conservative level of 28 million tonnes, the closing stock on September 30 could come down to 3.8 million tonnes, barely enough to meet the demand for the first two months.
ISMA had purchased high-resolution satellite imagery in early February to assess the status of sugarcane crops across the country, a statement said.
Satellite images have provided clear and reliable estimates of the area already harvested, the area of sugarcane still to be harvested, and regional variations in harvest progress. “These findings were confirmed by extensive field visits, historical production trends, prevailing weather conditions, current yield and sugar recovery data and projected performance during the remaining period of the crushing season,” it said.
Commenting on the decline, it said that sugarcane production in Uttar Pradesh is lower than earlier estimates.
This is mainly attributed to the various types of replacement programs running in the state, which have temporarily affected the productivity levels.
However, sugar recovery in the state is reported to be higher than last season, ISMA said.
Further, it said that despite sugar recovery levels being reasonable in the major sugarcane producing areas of Maharashtra and Karnataka, the yield per unit area is lower than initially expected. This reduction in yield is linked to the onset of sugarcane flowering, which began in many sugarcane growing areas from January onwards rather than being limited to the traditional river belt only.
Early flowering – often caused by unusual weather patterns, including excess rainfall during key growth stages – accelerates sugarcane maturity and reduces biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter, less productive stalks. Additionally, high crush rates this year shortened the effective harvest window, reduced field retention time, and limited late-stage biomass accumulation.
Published on February 25, 2026
