The APEC Climate Center (APCC) has issued an “El Niño” watch, meaning drought-impacting weather could emerge in the coming season.
According to the report, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in most parts of the world, except some parts of the Southern Tropical Ocean. Specifically, it said the probability of above normal temperatures is higher in India, along with Western Europe, Central Asia, Russia, Australia, eastern North America and southern South America.
APCC said the probability of below normal rainfall has increased in India, Central America and northern South America. A below normal rainfall trend is predicted for the tropical Atlantic and southern Australia.
For India, this could result in the south-west monsoon being affected as early as 2023. In 2023, El Nino will cause weak monsoon and drought in at least 25 percent of the country. In particular, it affected the production of pulses, coarse cereals and paddy, forcing India to curb rice exports.
El Nino usually causes dry and prolonged drought conditions in Asia, especially India and parts of Africa.
seasonal outlook
During March–May, above normal rainfall is expected over the tropical North Pacific, subtropical southwestern Pacific, and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Below normal rainfall is predicted for the Maritime Continent, off-equatorial South Pacific and northwestern Pacific.
During June–August 2026, above normal rainfall is expected over the equatorial and western North Pacific.
Between March and May, there is a strong possibility of above normal temperatures in the north-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, Central Africa, West Asia, the equatorial Indian Ocean, eastern East Asia and the North Pacific, the tropical North Pacific and South-Western Pacific, the Caribbean, Mexico, the subtropical North Atlantic, the south-eastern South Pacific and central South America.
Above normal temperatures are expected across much of Europe, the Arctic Ocean, Russia, Greenland, Central Asia, North Africa, Western Australia, the United States, and Central and much of South America. According to the APCC report, temperatures are likely to remain above normal over much of Australia and eastern Canada during this period.
The likelihood of below normal temperatures is predicted to increase in parts of the North Atlantic.
rainfall trends
An increased chance of near normal rainfall is predicted for the central to eastern equatorial Pacific and the coast of western North Africa.
The APCC predicts a strong chance of below normal rainfall for parts of the central off-equatorial South Pacific and maritime continents.
Below normal rainfall is expected to increase over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, western and central North Pacific, and equatorial eastern Pacific. Below normal rainfall trends are predicted for the South Indian Ocean, Western Australia, Central Asia, the tropical western Atlantic and the extratropical western Atlantic.
Near normal rainfall is predicted to increase over West Asia during the time frame.
heat pattern
A strong chance of above-normal temperatures is predicted for the northeastern Atlantic, Greenland, the Mediterranean Sea, Eastern Europe, Western Asia, most of Africa, the northern Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, western China, eastern East Asia, the North Pacific, western North America, the subtropical North Atlantic, Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America, northern South America, and the tropical Pacific.
Above normal temperatures are expected to increase across Western Europe, Central Asia, Russia, India, Australia, eastern North America and southern South America.
A strong chance of above normal rainfall is predicted for the equatorial North Pacific. Above normal rainfall is predicted to increase over the tropical western North Pacific. Above normal rainfall trends are predicted for western Africa, the equatorial Indian Ocean and central South America.
Published on February 19, 2026
