India’s key spice markets are entering a mixed cycle in 2025-26, with chilli production expected to decline sharply, turmeric production rising again after last year’s price surge, and ginger facing volatility in exports amid China’s growing dominance. Crop information presented at the International Spices Conference (ISC 2026) indicates a year of supply recalibration and price sensitivity across all three commodities.
India, the world’s largest producer of chilli at about 2 million tonnes annually, is facing a 35-40 per cent decline in production this season due to reduced acreage and weather variability in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka. Sowing was extended to October-November, and harvesting is progressing with lower-than-expected arrivals, reducing spot availability.
Although carry-forward stocks are estimated to be 8-10 per cent higher year-on-year, trade estimates suggest effective supply may still be about 30 per cent lower due to acreage cuts. After a weak period due to high inventories in early 2025, chilli prices have strengthened since January as arrivals have disappointed. Export demand remains stable, with China emerging as a major buyer in recent seasons.
The turmeric market, which saw a sharp rally in 2024-25 after a small 2023 crop and low stocks, is now turning supply-positive. India, which controls about 80 percent of global turmeric production, is expected to see a 15 percent increase in production in 2026, driven by a 20 percent expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra.
However, excess rainfall has reduced yields by about 5 percent and raised concerns in some areas. Prices have declined by about 16 percent since mid-2024 due to improved production and market expectations of a larger harvest. Still, stock levels remain relatively low following an 11 percent increase in exports last year while a sharp decline in imports. Traders say meaningful inventory rebuilding will be important to reduce speculative volatility in the coming cycle.
India remains the world’s second largest ginger producer with about 20 lakh tonnes, but production has fallen by about 12 per cent this season due to lower acreage. About 90 percent of production is consumed domestically, which limits export risks but also hinders stock flexibility.
Exports remain volatile, relying heavily on Bangladesh, which accounts for about 80 percent of shipments. Exports of dry ginger increased in 2025, leading to depletion of domestic stocks despite improvement in production. However, India’s pricing power is increasingly being influenced by China, which now produces about 6 million tonnes and dominates global fresh exports. The report said that as China expands supply and infrastructure, Indian ginger prices remain sensitive to external release cycles, while compliance challenges are restricting access to premium Western markets.
Published on February 26, 2026
