According to two renowned meteorologists/researchers, the consistency of the forecast across various systems and the evolving ocean conditions suggest that there is a very high probability of El Niño developing this summer. El Nino generally brings poor south-west monsoon to India, including drought, although with exceptions.
business Line Swadhin Behera, Director, Applications Research Laboratory, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and Visiting Professor at the University of Tokyo; and Saji Hameed, Professor, Department of Computer Science and Engineering/Division of Computer Science, Aizu University, Tokyo.
Saji Hameed
The interaction with the potentially emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), mimicking El Nino-La Nina in the Indian Ocean, will determine the extent of the impact of El Nino on India. The SINTEX-F model and several other models at the Applications Research Laboratory predict a positive IOD this year, with the western basin of the Indian Ocean being warmer than the east, which is found to be supportive of the prevailing southwest monsoon.
Behera believes that if it develops during summer, it will reduce the impact of El Nino over central and eastern India. He said the combination of several dynamic models suggests a moderate to strong El Nino. However, individual group members within SINTEX-F and other systems indicate the possibility of a stronger event.
super el nino
Saji Hameed said: “We have a theory about extremely strong El Niños – the so-called Super El Niños. In fact, they are much more than just strong El Niños. Our analysis shows that they only occur when an IOD and an El Niño occur simultaneously. The JAMSTEC forecast model appears to be the only model in the world that has successfully predicted multiple past IOD events. And, its El Niño forecasts aren’t bad either.
Hamed says: “The JAMSTEC model predicts the occurrence of both El Niño and a positive IOD in 2026. If this prediction proves true, it is very likely that we will see a Super El Niño in 2026/2027, similar in magnitude to the Super El Niño of 1997/1998.”
weak link
But for India, 1997–98 proved to be a normal monsoon year, showing how tenuous inter-linkages can be. The IOD typically develops during spring April–May, intensifies during the southwest monsoon (June–August) and reaches peak strength during autumn (September–November) before decaying in December.
Excerpts from the interview with Swadhin Behera:
Can you explain the latest SINTEX-F predictions in nickels and dimes?
The latest forecast signals from the SINTEX-F seasonal prediction systemThe evolution of the El Niño event during the summer of 2026. In fact, SINTEX-F has consistently predicted El Niño conditions since October last year, demonstrating relatively stable lead-time predictability.
This approach is broadly consistent with forecasts from other major dynamical prediction systems, particularly those contributing to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Multi-model consensus increases confidence in projected warming of the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific. The persistence of subsurface heat content anomalies and their eastward propagation are the major precursors currently supporting this prediction.
What is the probability of an El Nino event?
said spring predictability barrier ENSO forecast skill is often limited when the forecast crosses the spring season. In recent years, advances in oceanic data assimilation, improved model physics, and better representation of coupled air–sea feedbacks have substantially enhanced the performance of dynamical prediction systems.
Importantly, we have experienced consistent La Niña conditions over the past two years. Such multi-year La Niña episodes typically cause a gradual increase in the amount of warm water in the western Pacific warm pool. This recharge of equatorial heat content is a fundamental component of the ENSO recharge-discharge oscillator framework.
Once the system transitions from a “recharged” state, the accumulated subsurface warm water can spread eastward and prepare the basin for El Niño development.
Indeed, recent observations from the TAO/TRITON buoy array show the transmission of equatorial Kelvin waves down from the western Pacific to the central and eastern Pacific. These waves deepen the thermocline to the east and transport subsurface heat eastward, providing a dynamic trigger for surface warming.
Given the stability in many of the conjunction systems and the evolving ocean conditions, I would say there is a very high chance of El Niño developing by boreal summer.
Will this be a powerful event?
The ensemble mean of several dynamic models suggests a moderate to strong El Niño. However, individual group members within SINTEX-F and other systems indicate the possibility of a stronger event.
At this stage, there remains uncertainty regarding the dimension. A lot will depend on:
1. The strength and persistence of westerly wind gusts,
2. Development of subsurface heating materials,
3. Feedback strength in the Burkeness coupled ocean-atmosphere system. If positive reactions intensify during late spring and early summer, the event may become stronger than moderate intensity.
Could the predicted El Nino lead to an improved north-east monsoon for South India?
While seasonal rainfall prediction skill remains modest compared to SST forecasts, SINTEX-F currently predicts above normal rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka during the north-east monsoon season. If this materialises, it could partially compensate for the shortfall of the expected south-west monsoon, especially for Tamil Nadu and surrounding areas.
However, rainfall in both monsoon seasons will depend on several factors.
1. Spatial structure of El Niño, including its peak intensity during June–September.
2. Interaction with IOD. SINTEX-F and several other models predict a positive IOD this year. If it develops during summer, it will reduce the impact of El Nino over central and eastern India.
3. Intra-seasonal variability (for example, MJO wave activity).
Is El Nino becoming harder to detect under global warming?
There is increasing evidence that under anthropogenic warming, background tropical Pacific SSTs are increasing, which may mask or alter the apparent structure of El Niño anomalies.
Recent El Niño events have shown warm SST anomalies spanning much of the tropical Pacific basin. This widespread warming may be affected by:
1. Long-term global warming trends
2. Decadal variability (as in Pacific decadal variability)
3. Change in mean-state trade wind power.
In such a warm background, relative SST anomalies (deviations from climatology) may appear spatially broader or less distinct, making classification more nuanced. However, dynamical indices (such as Niño3.4 SST anomalies and subsurface heat content) remain reliable diagnostic tools.
Published on February 23, 2026
