Traders and analysts say India will find it difficult to find buyers abroad for its wheat as the domestic cost of the food grain is higher than the global market.
According to a New Delhi-based trader, this will be a tough task, especially when the government has fixed the minimum support price for wheat at ₹2,585 per quintal, which is ₹160 more than last year.
Last week, the government lifted a nearly four-year-old ban on wheat exports and allowed the shipment of 2.5 million tonnes (MT). The move was to ensure remunerative prices for producers after domestic rates fell from ₹2,587l in January to ₹2,527/quintal in the first half of this month.
current prices
At present, prices of domestic wheat delivered to Kandla port from Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are between ₹25,200 and ₹25,500 per tonne. In dollar terms, wheat prices delivered in Kandla are pegged at $285-288 per tonne. If freight rates of $20 per tonne to the Middle East and South-East Asia are taken into account, the cost and freight could be $305-308 per tonne.
At the same time, if wheat from Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is sent from Visakhapatnam, its price can be $ 306-310 per ton. In comparison, global wheat prices are trading at $260 per tonne. “Although Indian wheat commands some premium in the Middle East, a difference of $45-48 will make it costlier,” the trader said.
Another trader from north India said Indian wheat would not be able to compete internationally as farmers were unlikely to offer wheat below the MSP.
global offer
Global trading companies such as Olam International, Bunge and Louis Dreyfus were offering wheat for the second half of March at between $286 and $290 a tonne, traders said.
Another south-based trader said prices for Indian wheat, with a protein content of 11.5, are $20 a tonne higher than grains from the Black Sea region.
According to Freer’s wheat report, Australian wheat is seeing good demand in the global market despite stiff competition from Argentina and a strong Australian dollar.
North American wheat is seeing export demand that may exceed the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecast, while produce from the European Union and the Black Sea region is being sidelined.
best option
Australia’s wheat exports more than doubled to 2.29 million tonnes in December from November 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with Indonesia, China and the Philippines the major bulk buyers.
However, India has an option to export wheat. There can be road or rail route to Bangladesh. The south-based trader said the price of wheat exported from Bihar by road or rail could be $283 a tonne compared to the current landing price of $270.
“Exporting wheat to Bangladesh is the best option. The best case scenario is that India can export a maximum of one lakh tonnes, that too from Bihar,” the trader said.
Traders said with the new dispensation coming into force in Bangladesh under Tariq Rahman, India may consider government-to-government wheat exports.
record stock
India is under pressure to export wheat as its ending stocks as of March 31 could be at a 10-year high of 21 million tonnes, an analyst said. Currently, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has record-high stocks of 25.31 million tonnes of wheat and 34.61 million tonnes of rice. It also includes unmilled paddy, which in terms of rice is 40.49 million tonnes.
“With the upcoming wheat crop looking good and no possibility of the government providing subsidies for exports, one wonders how India will compete in the export market,” wondered the North-based trader.
India banned wheat exports on May 13, 2022, after extreme heat affected production in growing areas. The ban was also meant to control rising food inflation as wheat prices had increased by 60 percent at that time.
Production that year was estimated at less than 110 million tonnes.
Unseasonal rains also affected production in 2023, although it improved to 113.29 million tonnes. Following the impact of climate change, the government encouraged farmers to adopt climate-resilient wheat varieties from the 2024 season. Due to this, production will increase to 117.95 million tonnes in 2025.
Published on February 18, 2026
