The three-day weather forecast by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates moderate rain over almost entire Kerala and southern and adjoining western parts of Tamil Nadu till Monday. | Photo courtesy: www.windy.com
For the second time in a row and in almost as many days, a fresh low pressure area has formed over the equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal today (Saturday) morning, a day after the previous ‘low’ pressure on the Sri Lankan side (south-west Bay) gave way to it after weakening.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the fresh ‘minimum’ is likely to move west-northwestwards and become ‘more marked’ (a round intensification) over the southwest Gulf and adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean by tomorrow (Sunday). But it is likely to weaken soon due to the harsh environment emerging over the Gulf.
sink-heavy pattern
The ‘low’ will find it difficult to maintain itself in the face of a counter-clockwise anticyclone pattern (clockwise movement of dry air), which sinks heavily over land and eliminates any cyclonic pattern that maintains any prevailing or budding low pressure area with favorable winds full of moisture, clouds and rainfall.
The IMD said a remnant cyclonic circulation from the erstwhile ‘low’ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and adjacent south-west Gulf (Sri Lankan side) persisted till today (Saturday) morning. From this circulation, a rainfall-favourable trough continues overnight through South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala up to Lakshadweep.
heavy rain in the south
Today and tomorrow (Saturday and Sunday) heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over South Tamil Nadu and Kerala and Mahe. Along with this, isolated light/moderate rain, thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds are expected over these areas and South Interior Karnataka for four days from today; and coastal and north interior Karnataka for three days from Sunday, the IMD said in its outlook.
western disturbance
Meanwhile, further north, a prevalent Western Disturbance has moved towards eastern parts of the country as a trough, and extends from northwest Bihar through eastern Uttar Pradesh to southwest Madhya Pradesh. The cyclonic circulation over South Haryana and adjoining Punjab has since ‘closed’, while the original disturbance has established a ‘Centennial’ circulation over North-East Assam and East Bangladesh.
Rain and snowfall forecast
There is a possibility of scattered rainfall over the hills of North-West India (Western Himalayas) and Arunachal Pradesh. Thunderstorm and lightning may occur in Uttarakhand tomorrow (Sunday); In Vidarbha on Monday; and Chhattisgarh and Odisha on both Sunday and Monday. Scattered rain/snow likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Sunday and Monday; And in Uttarakhand for three days from Sunday.
Published on February 21, 2026
