India is likely to produce less sugar than initially estimated, farmers and trade officials told Reuters, as excessive rainfall in key producing states reduced sugarcane production, limiting exports from the world’s second-biggest producer.
Traders said India may struggle to ship even half of its allocated export quota, which will support global sugar prices which are near a five-year low, as well as push up domestic prices.
India is expected to produce 28.5 million to 29 million metric tonnes of sugar in the 2025/26 marketing year ending in September, according to internal estimates from the five trading houses, which declined to be named in line with company policies.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has estimated production at 30.95 million tonnes for the year.
“Sugarcane production has declined in all major producing states, from Maharashtra and Karnataka to Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat and this is leading to lower production estimates for this season,” said Rahil Shaikh, managing director of Mumbai-based MEIR Commodities India.
The biggest cut is expected in top producer Maharashtra, where output will be around 9.6 million tonnes, against the earlier estimate of 10.8 million tonnes, trade houses said.
About five dozen farmers from sugarcane growing areas of Maharashtra and neighboring Karnataka, including Kolhapur’s Vilas Patil, said excessive rains damaged root growth and led to early ripening of the crop.
“We were expecting a yield of at least 60 tonnes of sugarcane per acre, but it yielded only 48 tonnes. Excessive rain disrupted the growth cycle of the crop,” Patil said.
According to Meteorological Department data, sugarcane growing areas of Maharashtra received 115% more rainfall than normal in September.
Maharashtra has produced 9 million tonnes of sugar so far this season, and nearly half of the 207 mills that began crushing have already closed due to shortage of cane, said a senior state government official who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak to the media.
A Mumbai-based dealer said a decline in sugar production as well as an expected rise in seasonal summer demand from next month are likely to support prices.
India on Friday allowed the export of an additional 500,000 tonnes of sugar in addition to the 1.5 million tonnes previously approved, taking the total export quota for the year to 2 million tonnes.
“Mills are getting higher prices in the domestic market, so they have little incentive to export. Indian shipments are unlikely to exceed 700,000 tonnes,” Shaikh said.
Published on February 18, 2026
